It doesn't depend on a single thing, it depends on three: 1) the diameter of the seat tube (30.9, 31.6 or 34.9 mm — you can go up with a shim, not down); 2) the maximum travel that fits, limited by the available insertion and the stack of the post, NOT the nominal travel on the box; and 3) the routing of the cable, internal or external. Measure all three before buying: with that you won't go wrong.
The most expensive mistake is buying by travel ("I want a 150") without checking whether it fits. Here's the right order.
1 · Diameter. Read the engraving on your current post or measure the inside of the seat tube. The three standards are 30.9, 31.6 (the most common) and 34.9 mm. You can fit a thinner post with a reducer shim, but never one thicker than the tube.
2 · Travel that fits. Here's the detail almost no one explains: a dropper needs a minimum length inserted inside the frame. The real usable travel is limited by the available insertion (how far it drops before hitting a bend, a pivot or the bottle cage) and the stack of the post (what it takes up between the collar and the saddle rails). The number on the box is the ceiling, not what fits.
3 · Routing. If your frame is set up for internal cable, use an internally actuated dropper; if not, it runs externally. Getting this wrong leaves the post unmountable or the cable exposed.
To close the purchase without surprises you need two sibling entries: the diameter 30.9 / 31.6 / 34.9 and, above all, how to measure the insertion and the stack. That measurement is what really decides the travel that fits you.
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On three things: the diameter (30.9/31.6/34.9), the maximum travel that fits (limited by insertion and stack) and internal or external routing.
Because the post needs a minimum length inserted in the frame. If the tube is short or has a bend, the whole thing won't fit; usable travel is limited by the insertion, not the box.
Read it on your current post or measure the inside of the seat tube. You can go up with a shim (30.9 in 31.6), never down.
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